The Genetic Effects of Radiation - Conclusion

The Genetic Effects of Radiation by Isaac Asimov is part of HackerNoon’s Book Blog Post Series. The Table of Links for this book can be found here. Dose and Consequence - Conclusion

Conclusion

It is unrealistic to suppose that all sources of man-made radiation should be abolished. The good they do now, the greater good they will do in the future, cannot be abandoned. It is, however, reasonable to expect that the present Nuclear Test Ban Treaty will continue and that nations, such as France and China, which have nuclear capabilities but are not signatories of the Treaty will eventually sign. It is also reasonable to expect that X ray diagnosis and therapy will be carried on with the greatest circumspection, and that the use of radiation in industry and research will be carried on with great care and with the use of ample shielding.

A film badge (left) and a personal radiation monitor (right) record the amount of radiation absorbed by the wearer. These safety devices, worn by persons working in radiation environments, are designed to keep a constant check on each individual’s absorbed dose and to prevent overexposure.

As long as man-made radiation exists, there will be some absorption of it by human beings. The advantages of its use in our modern society are such that we must be prepared to pay some price. This is not a matter of callousness. We have come to depend a great deal for comfort and even for extended life, upon the achievements of our technology, and any serious crippling of that technology will cost us lives. An attempt must be made to balance the values of radiation against its dangers; we must balance lives against lives. This involves hard judgments.Those working under conditions of greatest radiation risk—in atomic research, in industrial plants using isotopes, and so on—can be allowed to set relatively high limits for total radiation dosages and dose rates that they may absorb (with time) with reasonable safety, but such rates will never do for the population generally. A relative few can voluntarily endure risks, both somatic and genetic, that we cannot sanely expect of mankind as a whole.From fruit fly experiments it would seem that a total exposure of 30 to 100 rads of radiation will double the spontaneous mutation rate. So much radiation and such a doubling of the rate would be considered intolerable for humanity.Some geneticists have recommended that the average total exposure of human beings in the first 30 years of life be set at 10 rads. Note that this figure is set as a maximum. Every reasonable method, it is expected, will be used to allow mankind to fall as far short of this figure as possible. Note also that the 10-rad figure is an average maximum. The exposure of some individuals to a greater total dose would be viewed as tolerable for society if it were balanced by the exposure of other individuals to a lesser total dose.A total exposure of 10 rads might increase the overall mutation rate, it is roughly estimated, by 10%. This is serious enough, but is bearable if we can convince ourselves that the alternative of abandoning radiation technology altogether will cause still greater suffering.A 10% increase in mutation rate, whatever it might mean in personal suffering and public expense, is not likely to threaten the human race with extinction, or even with serious degeneration.The human race as a whole may be thought of as somewhat analogous to a population of dividing cells in a growing tissue. Those affected by genetic damage drop out and the slack is taken up by those not affected.If the number of those affected is increased, there would come a crucial point, or threshold, where the slack could no longer be taken up. The genetic load might increase to the point where the species as a whole would degenerate and fade toward extinction—a sort of “racial radiation sickness”.We are not near this threshold now, however, and can, therefore, as a species, absorb a moderate increase in mutation rate without danger of extinction.On the other hand, it is not correct to argue, as some do, that an increase in mutation rate might be actually beneficial. The argument runs that a higher mutation rate might broaden the gene pool and make it more flexible, thus speeding up the course of evolution and hastening the advent of “supermen”—brainier, stronger, healthier than we ourselves are.The truth seems to be that the gene pool, as it exists now, supplies us with all the variability we need for the effective working of the evolutionary mechanism. That mechanism is functioning with such efficiency that broadening the gene pool cannot very well add to it, and if the hope of increased evolutionary efficiency were the only reason to tolerate man-made radiation, it would be insufficient.The situation is rather analogous to that of a man who owns a good house that is heavily mortgaged. If he were offered a second house with a similar mortgage, he would have to refuse. To be sure, he would have twice the number of houses, but he would not need a second house since he has all the comfort he can reasonably use in his first house—and he would not be able to afford a second mortgage.What humanity must do, if additional radiation damage is absolutely necessary, is to take on as little of that added damage as possible, and not pretend that any direct benefits will be involved. Any pretense of that sort may well lure us into assuming still greater damage—damage we may not be able to afford under any circumstances and for any reason.Actually, as the situation appears right now, it is not likely that the use of radiation in modern medicine, research, and industry will overstep the maximum bounds set by scientists who have weighed the problem carefully. Only nuclear warfare is likely to do so, and apparently those governments with large capacities in this direction are thoroughly aware of the danger and (so far, at least) have guided their foreign policies accordingly.

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This book is part of the public domain. Asimov, Isaac. (October 13, 2017). THE GENETIC EFFECTS OF RADIATION. Urbana, Illinois: Project Gutenberg. Retrieved June 2022, from 

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